123dogs Racing

Statistics and Data Analysis


We are using Statistics and Data Analysis to try and get patterns, some of which are merging.
Of 5000 randomly races, we are seeing some interesting patterns.

Some abbreviations used below:
OR Original rating (please see help).
AR Algorithmic rating (please see help).
ROI Return Of Investment. Used in finance to show the amount of money you make from an initial investment.
Worst This refers to worst greyhound on a particular race(worst split or finish time).
Best This refers to best greyhound on a particular race(best split or finish time).
Note: All ROI are referred to official SP(Starting Price).
Best Worst
OR AR OR AR
Win % 23.1% 23.9% 12.5% 10.9%
ROI % -17.8% -12.5% -36.6% -43.9%

Comments: On best greyhound Algorithmic Rating shows a 5% advantage ROI compared to Original rating.
On last greyhound there is a 7.3% difference, useful for laying.


Traps
Trap 1 Trap 2 Trap 3 Trap 4 Trap 5 Trap 6
Win % 16.64% 16.09% 17.49% 17.07% 15.05% 17.65%
ROI % -27.4% -31.3% -29.2% -27.9% -31.5% -23.3%

Comments: Trap 5 seems to be less profitable (useful for laying systems).
Trap 6 is the opposite: best winning percentage and best ROI.


Traps wins (worst split time)
Trap 1 Trap 2 Trap 3 Trap 4 Trap 5 Trap 6
Win % 15.08% 13.65% 12.71% 11.09% 12.78% 12.68%
ROI % -28.3% -39.7% -45.0% -49.8% -35.0% -42.3%

Comments: Traps 3 and 4 are showing a high loss (useful for laying).
Trap 1 somehow have the highest wins and ROI. Maybe it misses all the trouble by "coming" late into race.


Traps wins (best split time)
Trap 1 Trap 2 Trap 3 Trap 4 Trap 5 Trap 6
Win % 21.23% 24.81% 22.05% 18.29% 19.89% 21.11%
ROI % -17.0% -6.8% -20.0% -32.0% -22.1% -14.2%

Comments: Trap 4 lowest wins and ROI (for laying systems).
Trap 2 relatively high ROI. To be further investigated.


Up / Down class
Up Class Down Class
Win % 15.7% 16.2%
ROI % -29.2% -32.5%

Comments: Not significant divergences. Slightly better ROI on greyhound going up the class (it pays to follow dogs on good form).


Up / Down class (worst)
Up (OR) Up (AR) Down (OR) Down (AR)
Win % 9.7% 10.1% 10.2% 5.2%
ROI % -51.6% -46.2% -50.2% -70.7%

Comments: The only trend merging is the down class low ROI when using AR. We use class upgrading / downgrading as part of our algorithm, hence different ROI/win percentage.


Age (in years)
Less than 4 years old More than 4 years old
Win % 17.3% 13.3%
ROI % -24.9% -38.7%

Comments: Slight differences on win percentage. It is a bigger gap on ROI: 15% difference. Seems like old greyhounds may be part of laying system.


Using complex data analysis, we managed to "see" some high patterns.
Table below show wins, looses and ROI for those findings.
Note: we are not tipping any of those results yet. It is for future developments and data testing.

Specials
Back T6 Lay T4 Special1 Lay T4 Special2 Lay T5 Special1 Lay T5 Special2 Lay T 1 to 5
Win 8 1 1 6 1 2
Loose 12 64 93 179 72 140
Win % 40.0% 1.5% 1.1% 3.2% 1.4% 1.4%
ROI % 47.2% -93.8% -94.1% -82.4% -95.2% -94.7%